Year ending 5th March 2017: End of Year 1
The first year was certainly an interesting one politically with Brexit and Trump being two big calls that I certainly didn’t make. The Oil price crashed early in 2016 and kept low as expected – possibly not quite as low as I thought at first – I have to say that the U.S fracking companies surprised me with their robust response to what appeared to be a Saudi attempt to blow them out of the market.
I’ve done a lot of reading this year, and I can tell that some of it is starting to sink in despite my best efforts. Of particular interest have been the value investing explanations of Graham, Buffett, Spier and Bos. I have also enjoyed Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb several times.
One of my early posts mentioned Glencore, and my decision to hold at 170p which I can confirm I still am at 300p. Unfortunately that was my remaining holding, having been spooked out of some Glencore shares by the general volatility in commodities at that time. Having read the above books I hope that next time I won’t be so easily diverted off course.
Impatience in some trades such as Inspired Energy (INSE) and The Restaurant Group (RTN) have meant that I’ve left money on the table, cashing in just before they took a leg up. I’m not looking for twenty twenty hindsight, but on reflection I was influenced by the continuing low share price in spite of the good fundamentals to sell too early.
In terms of performance, it hasn’t been bad. The balance has moved up nicely to £187,765 from a starting balance of £150,000, giving a 25.18% return. Not quite what I’m targeting but a reasonably solid year one performance